By Garrett Lumpkin
Last Season
The Saints finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs for the second straight year. It’s been the same story for the Saints in each of the last two seasons. The offense has been fantastic (ranked 1st in 2008), but the defense has been horrendous (ranked 23rd in 2008). Drew Brees joined Dan Marino as the only quarterback in the history of the NFL to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. The Saints weren’t blowing teams out. They had to throw the ball that much just to keep up with their opposition. The Saint’s defense allowed at least 23 points in 13 of 16 games.
Quarterbacks A+
Drew Brees has established himself among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL alongside Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. He is the unquestioned leader of the Saints and produces monster numbers year in and year out. Brees has averaged 4,600 yards passing and 30 touchdown passes in three years in New Orleans. He rarely makes the big mistake and doesn’t take many sacks. He is the one player on the roster that the Saints can not afford to lose to injury. Mark Brunell is a 15 year veteran and is the backup quarterback. However, if you ever see Brunell on the field during the regular season, the Saints are probably in big trouble.
Running Backs B
Reggie Bush had his best professional season in 2008, but fans expect more from the former number two overall pick. Bush is the best pass catching running back in the league by far. However, Bush has struggled in the running game and has not finished each of the last two seasons due to injuries. In three NFL seasons Bush has yet to average 4.0 yards per carry. He needs to get there this year for the Saints running game to be a real threat. Third year running back Pierre Thomas could break out this season. Last year playing behind Bush and Deuce McCallister, Thomas averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 12 touchdowns on only 160 offensive touches. Look for the Saints to give Thomas more touches starting right out of the gate in week one. Mike Bell is third on the depth chart, but look for the Saints to possibly add a veteran free agent during training camp. Ex-Patriots fullback Heath Evans has some versatility and catches the ball well.
Wide Receivers A-
Marques Colston is a big, physical receiver and one of the best at his position. He doesn’t shy away from contact which shows his toughness, but it has also led to injuries. Last year Colston missed five games with a broken finger. If he plays a full season, he should make the pro bowl. Lance Moore benefited from Colston’s absence and posted career bests with 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. Moore is an excellent number two option for Brees. Devery Henderson and Robert Meachum have each been inconsistent, but both are excellent deep threats. Henderson and Meachum each averaged over 24 yards per catch last year. Jeremy Shockey is one of the better pass catching tight ends in the league and is also an above average run blocker at his position.
Offensive Line B+
The Saints pass much more than they run and the offensive line is at its best when Brees is throwing it. Last season only two starting quarterbacks were sacked fewer times than Brees. Brees dropped back to pass 635 times and was only sacked 13 times. Continuity is extremely important on the offensive line and all five starters from last year return. They have Jamal Brown and Jon Stinchomb at the tackles, Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans at the guards, and Jonathan Goodwin at center. If there is a flaw with this group, it’s in the running game. However, in November and December Pierre Thomas seemed to find the holes that Reggie Bush could not locate in September and October.
Defensive Line C+
Will Smith is one of the most well rounded defensive ends in the league. He plays the run well, and when healthy, is the Saints best pass rusher. However, Smith’s sack total has decreased in each of the last three seasons. Charles Grant starts at the other defensive end spot and is more of a power player. He runs through people, not around them. Sedric Ellis showed promise as a rookie and is poised for a big season. He’s short, stout, and has a powerful upper body. Kendrick Clancy led the team in sacks with six and is expected to start at the other defensive tackle spot.
Linebackers C-
Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma played well in his first season with the Saints as he led the team in tackles with 132. Vilma is a firm tackler and is adequate dropping back into coverage. Outside linebacker Scott Fujita has been consistent during his three years in New Orleans, but he is vulnerable when playing in space. Scott Shanle is penciled in to start at the other outside linebacker position, but he doesn’t make many big plays. Shanle could be challenged by Dan Morgan during training camp.
Defensive Backs C
Cornerback Tracy Porter had an impressive start to his career last season before a wrist injury cut it short. Porter has solid cover skills to go along with good speed. Jabari Greer is listed next on the cornerback depth chart, but don’t be surprised if rookie Malcolm Jenkins gets the starting nod. Jenkins was the Saints first round draft pick in April’s draft. Strong safety Roman Harper is a big hitter, but he struggles in man to man coverage. Free safety Darren Sharper was signed in the offseason and provides this young group with some experience. Sharper may not have the speed that he once had, but he always seems to be around the ball.
Special Teams B-
Placekicker Garrett Hartley does not have a real strong leg, but he is accurate inside of 50 yards. He made all 13 of his field goal attempts after joining the Saints midway through the year. The Saints don’t punt much, but when they do it will be Glenn Pakulak handling the duties. Reggie Bush is arguably the most feared punt returner in the league. He took three punts to the house in just ten games. Pierre Thomas, Skylar Green, and Lance Moore are all in the mix at kick returner.
Predictions
Best Case Scenario (12-4): The defense plays much better under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Greg Williams. The offense shows more balance with the run and the pass, and the team avoids major injuries.
Worst Case Scenario (7-9): The defense doesn’t get any better. The offense struggles to run the ball, and a big contributor or two goes on injured reserve.
My Prediction (10-6): I think the defense will improve under Williams. Everywhere he has coached in the NFL, he seems to have a top ten defense. I think that with Pierre Thomas getting more carries, the running game will be better and that will allow the Saints defense to rest a little more on the sideline.
The Saints have a difficult schedule and I don’t think they will win the NFC South division. However, I do see the Saints making the playoffs as a wild card.
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